Thursday, October 30, 2014

Thursday Night Video Update: A Storm is Coming but Some Questions Remain

Video below shows updated models for today and how they compare to the map I posted on Wednesday morning . Overall, models are now coming back to my original idea of most of our area receiving rain (show shower on back end) from this system. I will say, this is going to come down to the wire as things are very complicated with this storm set up. Hopefully when it is all said and done, I do a decent job and don't go 0-1 for the year (things did not look good this morning). Stay tuned!

Here is the going forecast issued Wednesday morning...

More of the exact details on start and stop time will come tomorrow morning. Hopefully that helps with weekend plans. 

Stay Tuned, Despite What you See in Other Forecasts..

You guys who follow me a lot know that I break down how I think a weather situation will evolve and try my best not to flip  flop with the models. The latest model runs have now started coming back to my original ideas.  I still might be wrong but let's see how this plays out.  Much more tonight.  My forecast map from Wed is a few posts below this entry.

Updated Forecast and Map Later Tonight

Not much to add this morning. I will finalize everything after today's run of the models. But overall, no major changes. Might have to take the amounts down a little in Maine. 

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

9pm Update: Sticking to My Guns

Quick video below looks at today's model guidance and implications on my forecast I put out this morning. More tomorrow. 

Wednesday Morning: The First Official Forecast Map

Good morning. After looking at the model updates, I am being to gain confidence on how this storm will evolve this weekend. For the most part everyone who is not in the interior will see mostly rain and wind. This will start on Friday night and last through Saturday early eve. The interior, especially in the West VA, VT,NH, and Maine see accumulating snow from this. I am not ruling out snow showers (light high elevation accumulations) for some areas closer to the coast at the end of this event. This is due to very cold air rushing in.

Here is the forecast...

Basically we have another fall Nor'easter on our hands here. The storm will get very strong, but not pull in enough cold air to produce accumulating snow for the Mid-Atlantic. Expect a very cold miserable rain for most of the viewers on this blog.  

Due to the complicated nature of this storm, things could still change. Don't forget, we are still over 72 hours away so there is a lot to monitor. I will made final adjustments to this map by Thursday if warranted. 

More tonight around 9 pm. 

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Tuesday Morning Update: Trend in Tact, Increased Chances at East Coast Storm

Good morning. If you are really interested in how this situation is evolving I recommend you watch my video from last night. Basically as I have been talking about the past several days I am tracking the potential for a big east coast storm this weekend. This is a tricky forecast due to the fact that this whole storm depends on the phasing of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. I explain in the video how even the slightest deviation of this phase has drastic implications on the forecast.

So what did the models do overnight? In short, the trend for a stronger storm is in tact. The European really went bold and blows up a major storm right over the mid-Atlantic while the GFS is more the the north and east effecting New England more. Lets review a few components to this storm.

All depends on the phasing of the jet streams....we have seen a stronger trend for this. Here is yesterdays European model..

And last nights...

Notice the stronger deeper trend to the disturbances combining. This has big forecast implications as it results in a deeper storm that blows up off the coast. Here is the surface map of the new European..

This results in rain turning into snow showers for the Mid-Atlantic and a snowstorm over the Northeast. 

Things are never as simple as just buying one model however, take a look at its ensemble. What is an ensemble? Basically it takes the main model and tweaks its inputs to test for error. What you get are 52 different solutions. They more they are similar the more accurate a forecast is likely to be. Here is the European ensemble..

Two things to notice. For one, the average of all the members is the circle inside the green. Secondly, every individual member is represented by a low pressure symbol. Quite the spread on the micro level, but on the marco level we can confidently say a storm is coming. 

So where do we go from here...rain,snow,both? Too early to say, it all depends on the track.I will take a first stab at it tonight with a map I will put out, but first let me show you something. 

These are ocean temperature departure from normal. Notice how warm the Atlantic is along the coast. This creates something called a baroclinic zone or basically a boundary between cold air coming in from Canada and warm air over the ocean. Low pressure systems like to form over these zones to balance out the difference. I would not be surprised if that is the track the low takes. The recent trends back this up. A track like this would result in more frozen precipitation for many areas. Yes a more extreme solution but its something we need to consider. 

In Summary:

  • Increased confidence that a storm is coming this weekend
  • Question remains, how early do the jet streams phase, which will dictate how deep and close to the coast the storm is.
  • The ocean temperatures could be the wild card to this forecast
  • My first map will go out tonight on what I think is going to happen.
Stay tuned!

Monday, October 27, 2014

Monday Night Special Video Update: Models Suggest Winter Makes an Appearance This Weekend

What a day in the world of weather models! We saw what could be a trend develop for a potential winter storm for this weekend. Way to early to make a forecast but in this video I take you though what changed on the models and what trends I will be looking at over the next 24 hours. I will update again tomorrow morning with overnight model updates. If necessary, I will make my first prediction by tomorrow night, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. There is a lot of time to go, so stay tuned and I will keep you ahead of the "hype".

Buckle up the Weather Willy 2015 season could be officially underway!