Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Live Footage Coming This Afternoon

Wednesday Morning: Storm is Underway

******8:30am update: this storm is colder than expected already with sleet mixing in to the east and plain snow already in Morristown, NJ. Be on alert for travel as temps are decreasing rapidly. Looks like the models overestimated the warmth. Stay tuned!!******

Good morning. Our storm is now underway and here is a quick breakdown and what to expect. Expect frequent updates throughout the day and also on twitter which is linked to the right hand pane of this blog.

Here is our current radar..

That blue snow band with work its way to the south and east as the day progresses and temperatures fall. By 10am I expect north western zones to be changing over to snow..Elevation is going to play a huge factor here. 

As temperatures continue to fall this snow band works its way over towards interstate 95 by early afternoon

This is where travel should start to really diminish especially north and west. NYC and PHI I still think you are rain if not a mixed bag of precipitation at this time. Roads should not be bad yet in eastern zones.

By 3pm I expect the eastern zones to start seeing deteriorating conditions. In the image below red is snow..

Bottom line travel only gets worse as the day goes on from northwest to southeast. The big cities hold on to rain much longer before a changeover to snow this evening. Higher elevations north and west of 95 are the money zone for snow. Here is the latest high resolution model snow output which I like and think follows my forecast nicely..

As a reminder I expect 2-3 NYC, 7" Morristown NJ, Balt/Wash 3", 10" higher elevations of north west NJ, and 12+ near Worcester MA.

My going foreacst..

Remember for those who stay rain longer, that is expected and was build into my snow accumulations especially in the light blue zone. Your snow should not come till the end.

Stay tuned frequent updates throughout the day. I am now going to focus on the temperature profiles in everyones area and where the heavy snow banding might set up. Feel free to share any observations in the comments section or on twitter. 

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Tuesday Night Weather Update: Hardest Forecast You'll Ever See

It doesn't get much harder than this to make a forecast for areas along I-95 and towards NYC. The gradient between no snow and 6 inches literally is going to be paper thin and I am not going to be arrogant and think I have it all figured out. I will say however I like the forecast I have been conveying to everyone over the last several days. I think it should work out well on a macro level, but on a micro level there are going to be many surprises. Thats what makes this so exciting to track! Some will get more snow than expected some will get less. For anyone over 500ft and especially over 1000 ft that really is a sweet spot to be as temps will be colder at the surface.

I will be updating twitter and this blog frequently tomorrow as the storm is underway with up to minute updates and maybe even live footage.

The video below discusses my points above along with other factors that will make or break heavy snowfall in your backyard.

Tuesday Morning: The Final Forecast

Good morning everybody, the storm is locked in and now its time to put out my final forecast. I basically took my original map from Sunday morning and made a few tweaks based on updated model guidance. Here it is..

Accumulations by major cities:

New York City:2-3"
Philadelphia: 4-5"
Boston: 4"
Baltimore/Washington: 3"
Morristown NJ: 7"
Long Valley NJ: (Northwestern NJ) 10"
Worcester Ma: 12+

Timing: Rain breaks out in most areas tomorrow morning. By the time we get to late morning there should be a rapid changeover from north to south to snow in many areas in the dark and light blue regions. Near NYC and the coast rain holds for longer. I want to note that elevation will play a huge factor in snow totals, below 400ft expect lighter end of my ranges. Travel will be at its worst during Wednesday afternoon into the evening especially North and West of Interstate 95 where this storm should be nearing its peak intensity. By the time we get to late Wednesday night the storm tapers off in most areas except for New England. By daybreak Thanksgiving we should be under calm and cool conditions.

This is a major early season winter storm that is bound to throw a few surprises to the upside and downside with intensity and amounts.I expect very heavy snow banding to occur which will cause brutal travel conditions at times and poor visibility. This is not a long duration storm but at its peak intensity will really pack a hard punch so be prepared.

Here is an example of the simulated storm getting close to peak intensity valid 1pm tomorrow

Keep checking in for updates, much more to come over the next 24 hours including an update tonight at 6pm!

Monday, November 24, 2014

Monday Night Storm Update: Major Early Season Winter Storm Imminent for Many Areas

The video below is my update on Wednesdays storm. The goal is to keep you guys ahead of the media madness that comes along with any approaching storm. The timing on this is Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. This is absolutely cleared out by Thanksgiving. As a note, for the central and southern areas the heavier the precipitation the more likely it will fall as snow. I will explain this process tomorrow.

Enjoy, the final forecast and tweaked snow map will be out first thing tomorrow morning.


Monday Morning Storm Update: Some Details Still Unclear

Good morning everyone. As we are now closer to the biggest travel day of the year, there are still some details that need to be sorted our for this storm. Here is my original forecast from yesterday morning and it has not changed..

This forecast is based on the fact that the storm tracks closer to the coast and some warmer air works its way into central and southern zones. That is why the accumulations are lower in those areas as things may not stay frozen the whole event. This is supported by the European, British and Canadian models. In this scenario, as I discussed last night, the travel headaches only increase the more north and west you go. Now no forecast is ever easy and there are always going to be variables going against you. In this case, the American models are colder with this storm. This would mean that the accumulations are more than what I have for central and southern areas, but not by a huge degree.

As an example below is the difference between the American, European, and British model on temps at 5,000ft which is a critical level for snow..Anything is blue is cold enough for snow, green and yellow is warm enough for rain

British Model..Supports my forecast of snow north and west of green zone

European Model..Supports my forecast

American Model...Does not support my forecast and is colder  as seen by the blue zone over all of NJ and low further off the coast. In this scenario the 4-8" band would have to be adjusted at least 50 miles to the south and east on my map. 

Bottom line I said it before and I'll say it again. I think you blend this to be 65% European model and 35% American model and you have your forecast.

I advise anyone who has travel plans Wednesday to be prepared for delays in all areas especially north and west. This storm starts in the morning and will only strengthen as the day goes on. By the time we get to the wee hours of Thanksgiving morning we are in the clear.

I will be updating on twitter all day and have another big update tonight at 8pm. If I have to change or tweek my snowfall map that will take place by tomorrow. The key today is going to be if the European model starts to trend east and colder to agree with the American model or vice versa. 

Stay tuned for the verdict!

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Sunday Night Special Winter Storm Video Update

The video update below gives a play by play of what I expect to occur with the storm on Wednesday. Things could still change of course but the goal here is to have an actual forecast to keep you guys ahead of the storm. The timing on this storm is Wednesday late morning until very early Thursday morning. The peak intensity should be from later Wednesday afternoon till late Wednesday night. Most of the travel headaches should occur north and west of interstate 95. I explain why in the video. 

I will update again tomorrow morning. Live updates are always on my twitter as well @weatherwilly 

Feel free to leave comments with any questions.