Monday, September 15, 2014

Monday Morning Weather Update

The fall temps have arrived and everyone felt it this morning with temps below 50 in some spots. This is due to a trough over our area, the same trough that brought snow to the western part of the country last week...

Typical setup for cooler than normal east, with a trough just off the pacific coast which pumps up the ridge on the west coast and a corresponding trough over our area. Notice as well the NAO is negative as shown by the red colors over Greenland.

This pattern will lock in for this week and have below normal temps over our area on the front 5 days. 


Temps will struggle to get into the mid-70's with this air mass, and lows at night will be very chilly.

As we get to the end of the week, things will moderate slightly but nothing to write home about..


I think September ends up very below avg for temps central part of country, above normal for the West and just slightly below normal temps for our area.

Enjoy the nice fall weather this week.

Monday, September 8, 2014

Monday September 8th: Fall Has Arrived

The heat has broken and we are now experiencing fall like conditions over our area. These conditions will continue into early next week where temperatures will struggle to break 80 on the hottest days. Looking ahead to this weekend, we can see some unsettled conditions with temps struggling to break 70! As I said fall is knocking on the door.

Here is the pattern change in terms of temps at 5,000ft relative to normal.

As you can see will be a big shot of polar air in the central US this week and this will bleed over to the east but moderate a little by this weekend..


As the air arrives it will bring along with it a front later this week which can bring some unsettled conditions Thursday night..

The real concern for rain, however, looks to be this weekend where low pressure will develop along this front and possibly have some tropical influence. This would mean a lot of rain for our area and not a pleasant weekend..


Before we write off the weekend lets wait and see how and if this evolves.

More later this week. 

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Wednesday Weather Update

Good morning, very hot and humid conditions are upon us and it all due to a change in the upper air set up over our area.

Looking at the image above you can see the orange colors over our area which represents a ridge of high pressure. High pressure spins clockwise so it brings a southeastern flow off the tropical Atlantic into our area which causes the hot and humid conditions. As in many cases, the weather on the west coast is the opposite with a trough over that area as seen by the blue colors. 

I expect the above normal temps to continue through mid-month (not this hot, but marginally above average). This should not last for too long however, as the oceans support a return to the pattern we had most of the summer. 

We get some relief Sunday as a front swings through the area Sat night..


As I mentioned in the video on Winter last week, we will keep an eye on the ocean temp profiles this fall...


The water in the northeast Pacific is key. We need that to stay warm to support a cold winter. In two months we can make a more accurate assessment and evaluate other factors to determine the final result of Winter 2015. 



Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Factors to Monitor Heading into Winter

Video below discusses my first thoughts on the Winter of 2015. My official detailed forecast with graphics will come out in late Oct or Early November, but for now I discuss the factors I am monitoring and their implications. It will be interesting to see how things look once we get to mid fall. 




Friday, August 22, 2014

Im Back: Friday Morning Update

Finally back and have some time to make a quick post. Overall I will be putting most of my time into my post Monday Night when I will release my first thoughts on Winter. This will not be an official winter forecast since it really is too early to make that call. Instead, I will show how all the factors are currently lining up and give some prespective on the type of winters they have resulted in historically. It will be interesting to see how these variables change based on history because after all the weather patterns never work in a linear fashion. Def something to log in and take a look at Monday night.

Moving on to this weekend, some unsettled weather enters our area today into Sat morning..



Expect occasional showers and this unsettled weather will end by later in the day on Sat. Sunday looks beautiful right now as high pressure builds in the area..


In fact as we enter Monday and Tuesday temps might warm up a little as a ridge builds..


You will begin to hear alot of hype about a developing hurricane in the tropical Atlantic. This is something I have been monitoring for a few days now and honestly its too early to say where this storm will go. Tracks by the models range from Florida, the east coast, and out to sea. Right now I am leaning towards a curve out to sea track. 

Here are the model spreads...


Stay tuned this weekend, if there are any major developments I will make a post. Otherwise, look forward to that post on Winter coming Monday night.


Friday, August 8, 2014

On Vacation for A Week

Away for the next 10 days, but we will see more of the same with the weather. Cooler than normal conditions and showers from time to time over this time period. The frequency of posting will really start to increase as we approach the fall. That's when the jet stream starts to strengthen and we have more active weather to talk about including the heart of hurricane season.  

I will also towards the end of this month discuss the factors that will determine how this winter will pan out. I will release the official winter forecast in the fall but I will discuss some preliminary thoughts when I return. Stay tuned..

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Beautiful Weather This Week

Not much to add, that powerful trough resulting in beautiful weather for this week. Aug looks to be more of the same with our upper air setup.. This will result in very limited episodes of heat.  I am releasing my preliminary winter 2015 forecast towards the middle of Aug!